The President of Abkhazia, Sergey Bagapsh, has given a media briefing in Moscow on the South Ossetia-Georgia conflict and Russia’s role in it. Last week Russia recognised his country's independence, along with that of South Ossetia, saying it was the only way to provide safety in the volatile territories.
Saturday, 6 September 2008
Cheney – the wounded neocon
by Peter Lavelle
I have to wonder whether Cheney was questioned (over and over again) about how all of his great promises of support to these countries ended up in such a catastrophe? Cheney probably simply brushed off these worries. He has no interest in these countries whatsoever. Cheney simply wants Azerbaijan’s energy and to have Ukraine and Georgia play the role of spoilers to advance Washington’s geopolitical interests – all to annoy Russia. What happens to these countries in their own neighborhood is their problem. Dick is not the sentimental type. As a true neocon, friendship, truth, the law, and honor are alien concepts.
Cheney visited Tbilisi not to shore up Mikhail Saakashvili’s political position within Georgia and on the international stage. That is simply not possible anymore. Politically speaking, Saakashvili is a “dead man walking.” Of course there were thunderous words about how the US supports Georgia and its leader. Even a billion bucks were slated to prop up Georgia’s economy. But at the end of the day, Georgia has forever lost South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It was Cheney’s support of Saakashvili and his reckless and deadly ambitions that created this new reality. And, as a result, the Georgian leader himself is now a Washington liability.
Saakashvili was always one of Washington’s favourite pitch-hitters. But when it was Saakashvili’s time to bat, he struck out in the worst possible way. Cheney really has no use for Saakashvili anymore. Just watch – today we will probably see the end of martial law in Georgia. Expect to see opposition rallies start as a trickle; sooner rather later they will turn into something serious. Cheney’s Washington friends won’t lift a finger to help Saakashvili. Western media turned Saakashvili into a sensation, but Saakashvili’s action has turned him into a political ghost.
I believe this because we are about to enter the third stage of this tragic drama. (Just to recap: the first stage was Saakashvili’s war of aggression and media blitz, blaming everything on Russia. The second is the current media war. With every passing day, Tbilisi’s lies and brutality come to light. Russia is not the most media savvy country, but it is slowly getting out the real story). The third stage is the Cheney gang regrouping. Surveying the landscape and the personalities on the ground is happening now. And Saakashvili is no longer in the line-up.
This third stage sees Cheney and his neoconservative worldview on the defensive. This is very dangerous. The neocons tend to get really nasty when playing the game of catch-up. I fully expect a slow but sure drumbeat of “incidents” on the borders and within South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Cheney’s people will do everything they can to discredit and undermine the independence of Georgia’s former breakaway republics. As before, there will be little regard for human life. And keep an eye on Crimea.
Cheney is royally annoyed. He wants the Russians to pay for his tremendous blunder. The only way to do this is through Washington-sympathetic media. And we all know what they can do to influence public opinion. Western media almost universally claims to dislike Cheney, but it has the amazing capacity to do his bidding when he demands it.
Cheney’s tour was not a triumphant parade. It was not a trip demonstrating strength. Cheney visits were to assess the damage of his own policies – and it is considerable. The post-Soviet space is taking note of American words and actions. They simply don’t match. Cheney has shown himself to be an unreliable partner.
All the while, Russia has been watching from the sidelines. It will not remain idle. It did so far too long. If Cheney wants an undeclared war – Russia will surely give him what he wants. Cheney’s world is all about illusory ideals and profit. Russia’s interests are far more basic – like living in a safe neighbourhood.
U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney’s “inspection tour” of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine was supposed to show Russia that the US has strong allies in the post-Soviet space. Well, if the US did have strong allies in this part of the world, I doubt this is the case now.
I have to wonder whether Cheney was questioned (over and over again) about how all of his great promises of support to these countries ended up in such a catastrophe? Cheney probably simply brushed off these worries. He has no interest in these countries whatsoever. Cheney simply wants Azerbaijan’s energy and to have Ukraine and Georgia play the role of spoilers to advance Washington’s geopolitical interests – all to annoy Russia. What happens to these countries in their own neighborhood is their problem. Dick is not the sentimental type. As a true neocon, friendship, truth, the law, and honor are alien concepts.
Cheney visited Tbilisi not to shore up Mikhail Saakashvili’s political position within Georgia and on the international stage. That is simply not possible anymore. Politically speaking, Saakashvili is a “dead man walking.” Of course there were thunderous words about how the US supports Georgia and its leader. Even a billion bucks were slated to prop up Georgia’s economy. But at the end of the day, Georgia has forever lost South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It was Cheney’s support of Saakashvili and his reckless and deadly ambitions that created this new reality. And, as a result, the Georgian leader himself is now a Washington liability.
Saakashvili was always one of Washington’s favourite pitch-hitters. But when it was Saakashvili’s time to bat, he struck out in the worst possible way. Cheney really has no use for Saakashvili anymore. Just watch – today we will probably see the end of martial law in Georgia. Expect to see opposition rallies start as a trickle; sooner rather later they will turn into something serious. Cheney’s Washington friends won’t lift a finger to help Saakashvili. Western media turned Saakashvili into a sensation, but Saakashvili’s action has turned him into a political ghost.
I believe this because we are about to enter the third stage of this tragic drama. (Just to recap: the first stage was Saakashvili’s war of aggression and media blitz, blaming everything on Russia. The second is the current media war. With every passing day, Tbilisi’s lies and brutality come to light. Russia is not the most media savvy country, but it is slowly getting out the real story). The third stage is the Cheney gang regrouping. Surveying the landscape and the personalities on the ground is happening now. And Saakashvili is no longer in the line-up.
This third stage sees Cheney and his neoconservative worldview on the defensive. This is very dangerous. The neocons tend to get really nasty when playing the game of catch-up. I fully expect a slow but sure drumbeat of “incidents” on the borders and within South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Cheney’s people will do everything they can to discredit and undermine the independence of Georgia’s former breakaway republics. As before, there will be little regard for human life. And keep an eye on Crimea.
Cheney is royally annoyed. He wants the Russians to pay for his tremendous blunder. The only way to do this is through Washington-sympathetic media. And we all know what they can do to influence public opinion. Western media almost universally claims to dislike Cheney, but it has the amazing capacity to do his bidding when he demands it.
Cheney’s tour was not a triumphant parade. It was not a trip demonstrating strength. Cheney visits were to assess the damage of his own policies – and it is considerable. The post-Soviet space is taking note of American words and actions. They simply don’t match. Cheney has shown himself to be an unreliable partner.
All the while, Russia has been watching from the sidelines. It will not remain idle. It did so far too long. If Cheney wants an undeclared war – Russia will surely give him what he wants. Cheney’s world is all about illusory ideals and profit. Russia’s interests are far more basic – like living in a safe neighbourhood.
- Cheney – the wounded neocon
- Saakashvili – the shame of the Western media, by Peter Lavelle
First victims of Ossetian War identified
A complete list of all the victims of the conflict is not yet available as information is still being collected by South Ossetian authorities. The following are the names, dates of birth, causes of death and burial places of South Ossetian citizens so far confirmed killed in the fighting between the 7th and 12th of August 2008.
1. Ataev Alan Muratovich, 1971 D. O. B. Killed during the conflict. Buried in courtyard of apartment block.
2. Kelehsaev Murzaba V. , 1944 D. O. B. Shot by a Georgian sniper. Buried in Tbet village.
3. Petoev Albert S., 1943 D. O. B. Killed by a BM-21 Grad rocket. Buried in Vladikavkaz.
4. Pliev Tamaz Sulikoevich, 1965 D. O. B. South Ossetian OMON police officer. Died during active duty. Buried in Vladikavkaz.
5. Melitoljan D., 1966 D. O. B. Killed during the conflict. Buried in courtyard of apartment block.
6. Valiev Aleksandr A. , 1946 D. O. B. Killed by a Georgian sniper during evacuation on Zarskoi road.
7. Ostaev Tauret S., 1957 D. O. B. Killed by shrapnel from artillery fire. Buried in Itrapis village.
8. Bosikov Guram H. , 1953 D. O. B. Killed by air strike. Buried in Zguderskom cemetery.
9. Tadtaev Sergey Lvovich, 1972 D. O. B. Burned in own car after it was shot by a Georgian tank. Buried on grounds of School No. 5.
10. Kozaev Suliko A. , 1940 D. O. B. Killed by shrapnel from artillery fire. Buried in Itrapis village.
Thursday, 4 September 2008
RAD Newsletter, No. 45, 4 September 2008 - RUSSIA AND THE CONFLICT IN GEORGIA
This issue of the Russian Analytical Digest features articles about the August fighting in the Caucasus from a variety of perspectives. Specifically, the authors discuss the stages of the conflict, the role of Russia, Georgia and Chechens and international consequences of the conflict. The issue also provides several interviews on the chronicle of military events and Russian public opinion on the conflict.by Sergey Markedonov, Ivlian Haindrava, Nathalie Ouvaroff, Viacheslav Chirikba, Archil Gegeshidze.
>> Download the full text document (374 KB)
To download this issue or subscribe to the RAD newsletter please click here: http://www.res.ethz.ch/analysis/rad
Analyses:
- Caucasus Conflict Breaks Old Rules of the Gameby Sergey Markedonov, Moscow
- Eyes Wide Openby Ivlian Haindrava, Tbilisi
- The Role of Chechens in the Georgian-South Ossetian Conflictby Nathalie Ouvaroff, Moscow
Questions and Answers:
- Interview with Dr. Viacheslav Chirikba, Adviser on Foreign Policyto the President of Abkhazia
- Interview with Archil Gegeshidze, Senior Fellow at the Georgian Foundationfor Strategic and International Studies (GFSIS) in Tbilisi
Documentation:
- The Russian-Georgian Conflict. Chronicle of Military Events, August 2008
Opinion Poll:
- Russian Public Opinion on the Conflict,
The Russian Analytical Digest (RAD) is a bi-weekly internet publication jointly produced by the ResearchCentre for East European Studies at the University of Bremen and the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich. The Digest draws on contributions from the German-language Russlandanalysen (http://www.laender-analysen.de/russland), the CSS analytical network on Russia and Eurasia (http://www.res.ethz.ch/)and the Russian Regional Report.
JRL - RAS Issue No. 43 • September 2008 - The Caucasus
Editor: Stephen D. Shenfield
RAS archive: http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/jrl-ras.cfm
The Research and Analytical Supplement (RAS) to Johnson’s Russia List is produced and edited by Stephen D. Shenfield. He is the author of all parts of the content that are not attributed to any other author.
THE CAUCASUS
POLITICS
HISTORY
REMINISCENCE
- RAS Issue No. 43 • September 2008 • JRL 2008-164, by Stephen D. Shenfield
Wednesday, 3 September 2008
Nicaragua joins Russia in recognizing South Ossetia, Abkhazia
Daniel Ortega - President of NicaraguaManagua - The leftist Sandinista government of Nicaragua became the second country - after Russia - to recognize the break- away Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
The president of the Central American country, Daniel Ortega, said late Tuesday before the leadership of the Nicaraguan Army that he supports the plan by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to bring these territories closer to Russia.
'The government of Nicaragua recognizes the independence of the republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and we fully agree with the Russian government's position that that conflict may end through dialogue with European countries,' said Ortega, who in the 1980s put Nicaragua in the orbit of the Soviet Union.
He expressed support for Putin in the face of what he called 'a plan to circle the Russian Republic.'
World peace is being threatened by hegemonist, rash policies, because the Soviet Union disappeared and they went about promoting the break-up of nations that had a great unity that had been established with great effort,' Ortega added. Despite protest from Western countries, Russia recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia last week.
The internationally-isolated Belarus is also contemplating recognizing the independence of the two break-away provinces, while Moscow expects some 10 countries to follow its example in this respect.
- Related News
- Nicaragua joins Russia in recognizing South Ossetia, Abkhazia - The Earth Times
- Nicaragua recognises new Caucasus states - Russia Today
Sergei Bagapsh: Abkhazia has oil and gas
Sergei Bagapsh - President of AbkhaziaAbkhazia has sufficient resources for successful economic development, President of Abkhazia Sergey Bagapsh announced at a press conference in Sukhum Sep 2, 2008. He said that Abkhazia is rich with natural resources and fossil minerals — ''we have oil and gas.'' Bagapsh noticed that up to 10 billion rubles is going to be invested in developing the country's economy in the coming two or three years. Besides, he informed, foreign investments is going to be welcomed.
''We are ready to communicate with different organizations who want to cooperate, invest in the development of the resort business, agrarian sector, to take care of the construction business, reconstruction and development of transport infrastructure, etc.,'' Bagapsh said. He reminded that pre-war Abkhazia had a quite developed transport infrastructure.
''The war has inflicted enormous damage to Abkhazia's economy. Blockade imposed by the ill will of Georgia on the post-war Abkhazia became another heavy burden. The unilateral withdrawal of Russia from the economic sanctions regime in March 2008 positively impacted the economic situation in the republic,'' Apsnypress News Agency quotes Abkhazian President.
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