Tuesday, 14 October 2008

I survived the Georgian war. Here's what I saw.

By Lira Tskhovrebova - The Christian Science Monitor.

In a speech before the United Nations last month, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili implored world leaders to set up an international investigation to find out the truth about the war in South Ossetia.

I couldn't agree more. But I think the results of an honest investigation would reveal a very different "truth" than what President Saakashvili claims.

I know this because I was in Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, on Aug. 7 when Georgian troops marched into the city and killed my friends and neighbors. I huddled with my family in terror for three nights while Saakashvili's tanks and rockets destroyed hundreds of our homes, desecrated cemeteries, gutted schools and hospitals.

I also have good reason not to trust what Saakashvili says. For three days before the attack I had been getting calls from many Georgian friends warning me to get out. They said Saakashvili was planning an attack. Most of the Georgians living in South Ossetia left because they knew what was coming.

On the night of Aug. 7, Saakashvili went on television and assured the frightened civilian population of South Ossetia that he would not attack us. This was long after the time Saakashvili now claims Russians had begun "invading" Georgia.

Ossetians went to bed relieved and thankful for a peaceful night.

Less than two hours later, according to credible international accounts, his artillery, bombers, and three brigades of ground troops unleashed what I can only describe as a fierce hell on our city. In the moment, we knew only our fear as we hid. Afterward I spoke with hundreds of Ossetians to find out what was done to us.

My friend's elderly father tried to douse the flames set by Georgian fire on the home he had built with his hands. His leg was severed by shrapnel from Georgian weapons. He bled to death while his disabled wife crawled from their burning home.

Ossetians saw Georgian tanks firing into basements where women and children hid for safety They saw fleeing families shot down by Georgian snipers. We learned that the Georgian military had used Grad rocket systems and cluster bombs against Tskhinvali.

Yes, I would very much like to see an international commission investigate the truth of what happened.

When I came out from hiding, thanking God that the Russians had saved our lives, I was dismayed by the reaction of the international media to what had happened. There was nothing about Ossetian deaths and the unprovoked horrors inflicted by Saakashvili's military. It made my heart sick.

The truth has been crushed by Georgia's powerful public relations machine as mercilessly as Georgian tanks rolled over the defenseless civilians of Tskhinvali.

I know that Americans are a generous and fair people. But Americans haven't been told the truth about what happened to us. Americans don't understand that Ossetians are an independent, Christian Orthodox people with a deep history in our land. The world talks only about Georgian freedom. What of freedom for my people? Does our suffering, do our voices, mean nothing?

I don't blame the Georgian people for what happened to us. The vast number of Ossetians and Georgians want to live in peace. I blame Georgia's leaders.

Saakashvili has persuaded the world that he is a "beacon" of democracy and openness. But he won't even tell his own people the truth. My Georgian friends weren't allowed to see any Russian news sites during the conflict because all of those sites were blocked by Saakashvili's government.

I know we are a small people, and I make no claim to understanding the experts in geopolitics with their theories and pronouncements about the great powers. But I have fought for women's rights in Ossetia for 12 years and I believe in the truth.

In a recent article, Saakashvili cynically dismissed Ossetian suffering and deaths because, he said, Russia had "lied" about how many of my people were killed by the Georgian military.

It breaks my heart to even engage in this discussion. No one – including Saakashvili – knows how many Ossetians were killed by his Army. I have friends who buried loved ones in their backyards because there were no alternatives. Many people are still missing.

Does Saakashvili believe his vicious attack on a civilian city was justified if he only killed a few hundred rather than a few thousand? Do Americans realize that a military trained and equipped by the US government attacked a civilian population as they slept in their beds? Can they justify sending another billion dollars to Georgia and nothing for those Georgia attacked?

I have made an urgent appeal to the world for humanitarian relief for our people at the website helpossetianow.org. I beg the United States and the world to find out the truth. Please hear our voices.

Lira Tskhovrebova is the founder of the Association of South Ossetian Women for Democracy and Human Rights and has worked for more than a decade to improve relations between people of Georgian and Ossetian descent in the Caucasus.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia to take part in Geneva conference, Bernard Kouchner said

LUXEMBOURG, October 13 (Itar-Tass) - Representatives of South Ossetia and Abkhazia will take part in a conference, which will be held in Geneva on October 15 and focus on security in these republics, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said.

France is currently holding the rotating presidency in the EU.

At the same time, he declined to specify at what level South Ossetia and Abkhazia would be represented in Geneva.

Kouchner said Russia had fulfilled its obligations on the withdrawal of troops from Georgia.

Summing up the results of the EU ministerial meeting, Kouchner said Russia had fulfilled its obligations on the withdrawal of troops from Georgia.

At the same time, he said the problem of Akhalgori remained. The region is populated mostly by Georgians. But Russian military are now staying in the area, the French foreign minister said.

Akhalgori (Leningori in the Soviet times) is located within the limits of South Ossetia. After the Ossetian-Georgian conflict emerged in the beginning of 1990’s, this settlement was controlled by Georgia till August 7. After Russia conducted an operation to coerce Georgia to peace, Georgian military units withdrew from the area and South Ossetia regained control over it. As part of his visit to Georgia on October 10 Kouchner called for withdrawing Russian troops from Akhalgori.

On October 11 as part of his working trip to Germany Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said a demand Russia withdraw peacekeepers from Akhalgori in South Ossetia runs counter the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan.

“I heard certain European representatives to regret that Russian peacekeepers have not been withdrawn from Akhalgori. This demand runs counter the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan. It says we will withdraw from the areas adjacent to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. EU observers deploy in these regions,” the Russian minister stressed.

“Akhalgori is within the borders of South Ossetia. Thus, the plan’s provisions do not include it,” Lavrov said.

He said his talks with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier focused on the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan. “Germany makes its contribution to forming a corps of EU observers in the areas adjacent to South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” the Russian minister said.

“Both parties understand the need to move towards strict implementation of all provisions of the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan. In particular, it is very important in light of discussions (on South Ossetia) in Geneva on October 15,” Lavrov said.

“We confirmed our position. It is that the discussions cannot yield results without the full-fledged participation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. As for Russia, we will take part in the formats where these republics will be represented equally with the rest,” the Russian minister said.

“They fell victims of the aggression,” Lavrov said. “It is necessary to listen to their voice when we discuss ways not to repeat such tragedy,” the Russian minister emphasised. 

Thursday, 9 October 2008

U.S. again refuses visas to breakaway Abkhazia officials for UN visit

MOSCOW, October 9 (RIA Novosti) - The U.S. has again refused entry visas to breakaway Abkhazian officials due to attend a UN Security Council meeting on the Georgian conflict, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Thursday.

"Our repeated efforts to have Abkhazian representatives invited to an informal UN Security Council meeting have failed unfortunately over the unconstructive position of the U.S. administration, which has again denied them entry visas," Andrei Nesterenko said.

As New York is home to the United Nations headquarters, the United States is obligated, apart from in extraordinary circumstances, to allow foreign leaders to speak before the world body.
Russia proposed holding an informal UN Security Council meeting with representatives of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Georgian breakaway regions recognized by Moscow after a brief armed conflict with Tbilisi in August.

Russia's ambassador at the UN, Vitaly Churkin, earlier said the Council had expressed an interest in such a meeting.

Nesterenko said last month visa applications for South Ossetian and Abkhazian representatives had been submitted to the U.S. Embassy in Moscow.

It is not clear whether representatives of South Ossetia, which Georgia attacked in early August to retake it under central control, will be able to travel to the U.S.

The U.S. initially refused to issue a visa to Abkhazia's foreign minister, Sergei Shamba, in April 2007. Russia accused Washington of preventing a side in the conflict from speaking before the UN. The U.S. said Russia was trying to raise "false analogies" between Abkhazia and Kosovo complicating the discussion.

The Georgia conflict further stained relations between the U.S. and Russia. Washington accused Moscow of excessive use of force and violating Georgia's territorial integrity. Moscow said the U.S. administration had encouraged Georgian aggression.

The Latest Developments in the Caucasus, the Struggle for Global Hegemony and Turkey'

by Mitat Çelikpala - ASAM

2008 has been a busy and troubled year for the Caucasus. The Georgian army’s extensive military operation against South Ossetia on 8 August turned a regional disagreement into a hot conflict. The Russian intervention in Georgia almost transformed regional disagreements into a Russian-Georgian war. Russia has repeatedly warned that it would react strongly to the Georgian policies to this end; the bilateral relations between these two states have become irreparably disturbed since the coming to office of Mikheil Saakashvili. Nevertheless, the recent developments and the Russian reaction came as a shock to everyone. It was also feared that a new regional war could erupt, which could develop into a global war.

The armed conflicts that brought the two states to the verge of war appear to have stopped as a result of the cease-fire agreement signed on the EU’s initiative. Although the conflicts seem to have died down the potential for war remains. Another interesting point that is not often stressed is German Foreign Minister Steinmeier’s initiative the week prior to the start of the armed conflict. It was expected that as a result of the German Government’s efforts, Georgia would start a negotiation process with the South Ossetian and Abkhazian administrations to discuss the status of these regions. Despite this expectation, and the anticipation that as a result of Russia’s approval a solution would be found, the region was plunged into war. Even this outcome is an indication of the unpredictability of Caucasus politics; the violent conflicts ended soon after they erupted. Although exact numbers are not available, it is estimated that over 2,000 people died and more than 100,000 are refugees. Georgia’s infrastructure, which had been constructed under difficult conditions, was destroyed, and its military prestige, self-esteem and national morale were crushed. The Vaziani and Marneuli bases and the port of Poti were heavily damaged. Many roads and railways are ruined. This not only affects Georgia; economically, all the neighbouring countries and regions including Turkey are directly affected. While the BTC pipeline is out of service, the gas flow from the BTK natural gas pipeline has been cut off for security reasons. New investments in Georgia now face even more risks.

The cease-fire agreement, which resulted from the initiatives of France, the EU term president, came into effect after being signed by the leaders of Abkhazia, Ossetia, Russia and Georgia. It was expected that the six-article cease-fire agreement would help pave the way for the preparation of agreements that would carry the region into a more stable future by normalizing the process. The cease-fire agreement requires ending the use of force and all military operations, providing permission for humanitarian aid, Georgian units to withdraw to their former positions, Russian units to withdraw to their pre-conflict positions, and commencing international negotiations for the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Furthermore, it is stressed that the agreement includes an article that states Russian peacekeeping forces should patrol these regions for an undetermined period of time. This is believed to be legitimizing a Russian presence in the region. In other words, although the cease-fire agreement has ended hostilities, it is evident that Georgia’s near future will be a troubled one. Although the Western world – specifically the EU and US – considers the Russian reaction disproportional, it could be said that Russia has, for now, the upper hand in the Caucasus.

The role of Turkey, which has been dealing with domestic issues recently, should be focused on. Prime Minister Erdoğan’s view that Turkey is ‘a country that offers solutions to problems in its neighbouring regions’ – which was stressed during his speech at the Mediterranean Union Summit – and how it potentially contributes to the resolution of problems in the Caucasus should be carefully analyzed.  Similarly, it is important that the constructive role Turkey plays in its neighbouring regions is stressed at the Ambassadors’ Summit. Indeed, Turkey’s position on the recent developments is particularly striking considering Turkey’s special relations with Russia and Georgia. With Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan’s visits to Moscow and Tbilisi, inviting the parties to normalize their relations, Turkey has demonstrated its close attention to such developments. Turkey’s alternative to establishing stability in the Caucasus is the formation of a regional stability pact. Such an initiative is expected to contribute to regional peace and stability by improving economic relations. Formation of a platform and its transition to a structure that provides peace and stability is dependent on the constructive attitudes of the regional states. Considering Turkey is part of certain regional problems in the Caucasus, their resolution will clearly be of direct benefit to Turkey – particularly resolution of the problems between Turkey and Armenia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the issues concerning Nagorno-Karabakh and Abkhazia/South Ossetia (Russia and Georgia). This article will examine the general situation in the Caucasus within the context of global relations. In light of this picture and the latest developments, Turkey’s position and effects on and contributions to potential developments will also be examined. This will enable us to understand the course of regional conflicts and Turkey’s position in the Caucasus and its future.

The New Battle Zone of the Struggle for Global Hegemony: the Caucasus 

The Caucasus had been on the agenda in the first half of 2008 due to the instability in the region during and after the elections in Armenia and Georgia. The Caucasus dominated the world’s attention in the second half of 2008 with its elections issues, their potential impact on Azerbaijan, and solution initiatives for the frozen conflicts following the developments in South Ossetia (Abkhazia). Problems in Ossetia and Abkhazia had reached a new level long before the armed conflict began, as a result of the international recognition of Kosovo’s declared independence in February 2008. Taking into account Russia’s desire to be more active in the political arena, and the expansion of the NATO/transatlantic security zone to the Caucasus alongside these developments, it is clearly evident that the rivalry has acquired a global dimension. The Caucasus – particularly Georgia – has become an active war zone with constant potential for hot conflict within the framework of the global quest for power.

The Caucasus states, which had felt excluded and disregarded until the 2000s, entered a new era when they became neighbours of the EU and NATO. The Caucasus became a zone of conflict when Russia, which had been economically revitalized with the help of rising natural gas and oil prices, began to perceive these developments as threats and engaged in political struggle. Russia’s borders on the Caucasus are now also the borders of the EU and NATO. In short, the whole world is closely following the developments in the Caucasus, and common solutions are being sought for the regional problems. The connection between the interests of parties and the solutions to problems has given the struggle for a balance of power a new global dimension.

Since their independence, the Caucasian republics have tried to form reliable and sustainable state structures that prioritize the protection of this independence. Although during this process, states have digressed from their course on occasion in response to developments and expectations, it was evident that they sought to form original policies. While Georgia, from the beginning, perceived Russia as a threat to its national existence and sought to become part of the Western world and its institutions, Armenia forged a full alliance with Russia to protect its security and territorial integrity. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has preferred to pursue a more balanced policy, reflecting its wealth of natural resources and the diversity of its problems. The common elements these countries share are fragile economic, political and social structures. Georgia’s ethnic composition and the struggles between these ethnic groups had a destructive effect on the Georgian state throughout the 1990s, weakening it and causing it to become a state that cannot protect its territorial integrity – as seen in the examples of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Because the governments have preferred to employ nationalist, militaristic and violent methods to resolve problems, the situation has reached a dead end. It is now unrealistic to expect Abkhazia to accept Georgian administrative/political/territorial sovereignty in any way. Similarly, the positions of Azerbaijan and Armenia, which are fighting over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, have made for a difficult process. Armenia occupies more than 20 per cent of Azerbaijan’s territory, excluding Nagorno-Karabakh. International isolation and domestic instability has put Armenia into a difficult corner. Meanwhile, everyone tries to avoid getting involved in the Karabakh issue. What kind of political future and change in regional balances will result from Azerbaijan’s recently accumulated wealth – the outcome of integration with the West – has become one of the most important items on the international community’s agenda. The possible military and political balance that could arise after the elections is being analyzed in the anticipation of war. 

In this context, the main factor determining regional countries’ positions and policies is essentially global processes. It is evident that fundamental change has occurred in the perception and policies of the transatlantic world – primarily the EU and NATO – of and towards the region. The new target of these organizations, which are about to complete the process of political integration with Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans, is the Caucasus. Both institutions have appointed Caucasus special representatives, made certain projections defining the Caucasus as a special region in their policy documents, and have been preparing documents for Caucasus policy initiatives since the 2000s. The regional states are being pressured to transform into democratic, liberal countries respecting the rule of law and human rights. It could be said that the EU and its member states seek to continue this process slowly, with a balanced and feasible vision. It could also be argued that such a process ensures the Caucasus states do not become uneasy and that Russia does not perceive the steps as direct threats to its existence. The special relationships between certain EU members and Russia enable the EU to act as an acceptable problem-solver in the Caucasus.

The US obviously plays an active role in this struggle and is perceived as the global hegemon trying to infiltrate the region. The recent struggle around the Black Sea region has now reached Georgia, having moved from Ukraine, Moldova, Bulgaria and Romania, one by one. Poland and the Czech Republic could be added to this list, since the clash over the missile shield has led to the perception of an encirclement policy. The commencement of negotiations between the USA and Poland following the armed conflicts in South Ossetia, Ukraine’s attitude towards the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, and the accelerated implementation of the encirclement policy all raise expectations of a tougher Russian reaction. This situation will occasionally put Turkey, which controls the Straits (the gates to the Black Sea), in a difficult position.

In this context, it could be argued that the struggle for global hegemony has turned the Caucasus into a ‘war zone’. It is apparent that the USA is gradually directing its resources away from Europe towards the Middle East, the Caucasus and its neighbouring regions. It is evident that, together with the agreements made with the Czech Republic and Poland and the missile defence system, this is all part of the Russian encirclement policy. It is understood that Russia, which is incapable of preventing this encirclement, wants to play a Caucasian-centred game. It must be stressed that the USA wants to launch a new initiative that will boost its effectiveness, by placing Georgia at the centre of its policies. Within this framework, Washington’s priority is finding a solution to the frozen conflicts with Abkhazia and South Ossetia that would serve its own interests. 

On the other side of the struggle for the Caucasus is Russia, and its perspective is arguably the product of a geopolitical-geostrategic approach. It is obvious that the transatlantic world’s process of expansion is not in Russia’s interests and perceived by Russia as a threat. The new Russian vision is one of domestic order, growth, international acceptance, respect and legitimacy. In order to meet these expectations Russia conveys the message that it can cooperate regionally – in the Caucasus for example – with Western actors, and the US initially, by employing various diplomatic and political methods. The ‘Strategy for Development to 2020’, which was formed by Putin and adopted by new President Dmitry Medvedev, defines Russia as a global actor. ‘Strong Economy, Strong Society, Strong Leadership and Strong Government’ are the pillars of this strategy. In this context, it aims to make Russia the world’s fifth largest economy by utilizing its resources – especially its energy supplies. Preserving the social status of the middle classes, which form the majority of the population, and achieving permanent political stability is part of this strategy. The multi-party political life dominated by the governing party, the strong state institutions and strong army are considered the driving forces of this process. When the last five years of Russia are examined, it can be said that this political vision has been put into practice. The goal is for Russia to become the main determinant of regional and global developments. Indeed, there are many reasons to believe efforts to reach this target continue steadily: the increasing levels of criticism levelled at the Western world – the centre of which is the US – since Putin’s speech at the Munich Conference in February 2007, the decision to unilaterally suspend the European Conventional Forces Treaty (ECFT) on 12 December 2007, the initiatives to create special spheres of influence around the Black Sea and the Caspian region, the efforts to re-establish at a new level relations with such Middle Eastern countries as Iran and Syria, and the proposed alternative solution to the problems in Kosovo and Abkhazia. Considering the recent developments related to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the Caucasus appears to be the new conflict zone for this struggle.

Frozen conflicts underlie the new ‘cold war’ going on in the Caucasus. The Western-oriented perception of the situation is that while Russia works to provoke these crises to serve its own interests, the US, EU and their institutions work to solve them. However, when the end result is analyzed it is evident that all parties are trying to manipulate the crises to their own advantage. When the recent developments are examined, it is apparent that the struggle for balance takes shape around Abkhazia and the Abkhazian problem. The parties are taking tactical, strategic steps to ensure the crises reemerge or are resolved as suits their purposes. South Ossetia could be considered Georgia’s test case for Abkhazia. Russia’s reaction and response to Georgia have demonstrated the ineffectiveness of such experiments. The struggle has advanced to a global level, and whether it will play out to the Western world’s advantage and Russia’s disadvantage, as in the previous cases of Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans, is an important question; the Caucasus is not in Europe, nor are the Caucasian states Balkan or Eastern European. Russia’s presence and its activities in the region, which it considers its ‘neighbourhood’, differ from Europe’s.  It could be argued that the EU cease-fire agreement confirms this, and has perhaps even prompted the start of a new period, one in which new states and borders will be established in the Caucasus.

Turkey’s Interests under Threat

Within this general framework, Turkey’s position and attitude is important. It is widely known that Turkey has always sided with the West in the resolution of European problems as well as during EU/NATO enlargements. Turkey was among the first to recognize Kosovo’s independence. However, in terms of the developments around and debates regarding the Black Sea and its basin, Turkey has not refrained from conflicting with the West in order to protect certain fundamental treaties – such as the Montreux Convention – and its national interests. On occasion, the US has criticized Turkey for taking Russia’s side. Turkey’s growing economic relations with Russia, and the debates on whether commercial relations can be used to establish a strategic political and military alliance, have occupied Turkey’s domestic and foreign agenda for a long time. At this point the position of the Caucasus and Turkey’s attitude differs significantly from Europe and other regions. Although debatable, Turkey could be considered a Caucasian state; the Caucasus is directly on the border of Turkey. As a neighbour, Turkey’s attitude towards the Caucasus, now or in the future, will have direct repercussions for Turkish-Russian and Turkish/Western relations. Meanwhile, the policies pursued will reflect on Turkey’s relations with the regional states. As a neighbouring country, Turkey will have to face the long-term consequences – whether negative or, with the correct approach, positive – as it had during the problems on its southern border. Likewise, it has been observed that diaspora organizations such as the Caucasus-Abkhaz Solidarity Committee react quickly, by way of protest meetings.

The breakdown of relations between Russia and Georgia and the irreconcilability that will result from the destructive war, carries the potential to not only adversely affect Turkey’s economic and political projects, such as the BSEC, BTC pipeline and BTK railroad, but also bring an end to Black Sea-centred regional security initiatives such as the BLACKSEAFOR and Black Sea Harmony. The collapse of these regional projects, which are the products of lengthy and problematic efforts, would lead to unwanted developments and outcomes for Turkey.

It will be remembered that until the mid-1990s, Georgia had not occupied an important place in Turkey’s Caucasus and Central Asia policies. However, it took centre stage when relations with Armenia deteriorated, Iran was isolated from international relations and competition with Russia began. Georgia has been given a major role in Turkey’s energy projects, such as the BTC and BTK oil and natural gas pipelines, and transportation projects such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railroad. Since the beginning of Saakashvili’s term, Turkey has actively contributed, together with the US, to many civilian, military, social and economic projects to assist Georgia’s development. The most important result of these investments and initiatives is that economically, Turkey has become Georgia’s primary partner. Indeed, Georgia is the only country among the former Soviet states to surpass Russia in its level of economic relations with Turkey. Although the figures are not high in absolute terms, this has symbolic and political importance. Moreover, the Turkish level of investment puts Turkey at the top of Georgia’s list of foreign direct investors. Through Georgia, Turkey is building a very important network.

It could be argued that the latest developments will damage Turkey and Turkey’s Caucasus and Central Asia policies as much as it did Georgia. In addition to the economic problems, Turkey’s political course of action/vision and infrastructure, which have been developed over the last decade with huge effort and occasionally ambiguously, are under threat of collapse. Turkey’s connection with Azerbaijan and Central Asia is weakening and there is a possibility that its policy to form a secure line might collapse. Georgia’s instability and civil war is more of a threat to Turkey than a Georgia without territorial integrity. Georgia-centred instability and disorder will force Turkey to choose between different alternatives, though clearly there are few to choose from. The possibility of diversifying relations with Iran is seriously limited by the US, and to a certain extent by Iran’s policy choices and attitudes. The only alternative that remains is Armenia. The acceleration of secret and indirect negotiations with Armenia to overcome the problems and progress the resolution of problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be expected. The Armenian Diaspora and relations with Russia will be the major roadblocks in this process. In this context, the policies towards Azerbaijan will be another restriction.

Conclusion

It must be stressed that Georgian leader Saakashvili has led himself, his country, Turkey and his allies onto a problematic path. The negotiations, which will be the result of the interaction of multiple unknowns, will result in a different Georgia and Caucasus. This process, in which the EU and USA will have an influential role, is filled with questions about the situation of Abkhazians and Ossetians, as well as Georgians. Turkey certainly needs to find its place at the table; Turkey’s regional interests are too important to be left to even its closest allies to defend. Providing decision-makers with daily, reliable and constructive alternatives is just as important as swift and correct decision-making. In short, the developments must be closely followed.

*Associate Prof. Dr. Mitat Çelikpala, TOBB ETU Department of International Relations

** This article was first published in Stratejik Analiz September 2008 issue in Turkish and translated by ASAM for the Foreign Policy Analysis section of ASAM’s web site.

Tuesday, 7 October 2008

Abkhazians call for recognition in European Parliament

Abkhazians call for recognition in European Parliament Valentina Pop Abkhazia would never accept a return to Georgia and still hopes for international recognition of its independence, as well as for the EU to include it in its neighbourhood policy, representatives of the breakaway province told MEPs during a hearing on Monday (6 October) organized by the Green Party.

The host of the event, German Green MEP Cem Ozdemir, said that his group had suggested for a long time for such discussions to take place, in order to prevent the escalation of the conflict.

"You can't select your neighbours: You have to live together," he said, stressing that it is important for all parties involved in the conflict to look ahead and not to remain captive in a blame game.

With a small, green-striped Abkhaz flag set up in front of his laptop, Viacheslav Chirikba, a Western-schooled advisor to the president of Abkhazia, presented in harsh terms such as "genocide" and even "holocaust" the history of his "nation," concluding that "Georgia has lost every moral right to rule Abkhazia."

Russia's recognition of the two breakaway provinces' independence on 26 August following the war in Georgia was a "surgical cut-off" that would "increase the stability in the region," he said.

Using the same arguments as the Kremlin, Mr Chirikba claimed that the EU, the US and the OSCE have an "irrational attitude" in not recognising Abkhaz independence, after they did so in regards to Kosovo, thus proving the "double standards" with international law. So far, only Russia and Nicaragua have recognized the two break-away republics.

He also insisted that Abkhazia, home to some 200,000 people, was not planning to join Russia - as the much smaller South Ossetia wants - since it was "economically viable" as an independent country based on agriculture and tourism.

In a more conciliatory tone, Abkhaz vice-foreign minister Maxim Gunjia insisted that his country does not seek any more conflicts, after one day of war destroyed 15 years of confidence building efforts.

"Do you think it was our dream to have Russian military bases on our soil?" he asked, adding that there was no other solution than to ask for Russia's help.

A military agreement is being currently drafted in regards to the Russian presence in Abkhazia, with the aim to maintain a maximum 5,000 Russian troops on its territory, Mr Gunjia told EUobserver.

EU 'can't guarantee' peace

What the conflict proved, in the Abkhazians' view, is that the EU "cannot give any substantive guarantees to stop or prevent a conflict."

"People only rely on the weapons at home and the Russian military bases," Mr Gunjia told the roughly 30 people in the audience.

He insisted that the only way out was for the EU to promote "a maximum de-militarisation of the region," referring to the Georgian army, but not the Abkhazian paramilitary or Russian troops.

Mr Gunjia also would like to see EU funds from the bloc's neighbourhood policy coming to his "country," claiming that Abkhazia is committed to "implementing EU standards," as it would otherwise be unable to trade with Europe over the Black Sea.

Asked by a German MEP who would be an acceptable partner in Tbilisi, if President Mikheil Saakashvili was to leave office, Mr Gunjia didn't want to give names, but said that "a party" or "political group" rather than one single person would be preferable.

Monday, 6 October 2008

US Contractors Training Georgian Military in Acts of Sabotage (Photos)


Other photos: http://www.warandpeace.ru/en/news/view/27388/

On September 14, 2008 a truck of Russian peacekeepers hit a roadside bomb in Abkhazia. It is not plausible that the Abkhazians are behind these attacks. Abkhazia wants Russian peacekeepers in its territory. The Abkhazian government blamed Georgian special forces as being behind the attack on the Russian peacekeepers.

The Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia were mandated under the flag of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), an organizational body of former Soviet republics, and as a direct result of agreements reached between Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia. 

Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Russia have been accusing Georgia of carrying out acts of sabotage and terrorism against Abkhazians, Ossetians, and Russians for some time now.

The U.S. has also been accused of playing a major role in the tensions between Georgia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Russia.

The law enforcement and security agencies of Abkhazia have handed over several pictures of American military personnel and/or contractors instructing Georgian military personnel on acts of sabotage. The first, second, and fourth photographs below show the instructor wearing a label saying U.S. contractor.

As a side note, the Rose Revolution, which brought the former New York City lawyer Mikheil N. Saakashvili into power in Georgia, was also engineered by the U.S. State Department and various NGOs acting as so-called conduits of democracy. Mikheil Saakashvili has in reality been a major blow to democracy in Georgia and civil liberties. He is unpopular, accused of corruption, and he has been curbing democractic rights in Georgia and arresting his political opponents. All with the support of the U.S. government and other NATO members.

Regardless of the claims by both sides there is clear photographic evidence that the U.S., like Israel, has been providing the Georgian military near the conflict zones with training.

The following is a series of photographs released by the the Russian military to the international media that expose U.S. involvement in Georgia. According to several Russian officials, including Sergey Markov of the Russian Duma, the Russian-Georgian War was in reality an American attack against the Russian Federation via their proxy puppet president Mikheil Saakashvili. 

The photographs show training, conducted by foreign military personnel and/or contractors in sabotage techniques.

“The pictures clearly show men wearing uniforms with insignia of other countries standing next to Georgian peacekeepers. They are training the Georgians sabotage techniques, particularly how to make crude devices for subversion purposes and killing people,” Russia’s Chief Military Prosecutor Sergei Nikolayevich Fridinsky said at the press conference where the pictures were unveiled.

Returning full circle to the attack on Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia, these are exactly the same type of devices being used.

September 14, 2008


Reply to Hamilton's reply / From: "George Hewitt

-----------------------------
Reply to Hamilton's reply

[George Hewitt is professor of Caucasian languages at London's School of Oriental & African Studies (SOAS). Among his many works are "Peoples of the Caucasus" (in F. Fernández-Armesto, ed.), Guide to the Peoples of Europe (Times Books, 1994) and (as editor) The Abkhazians, a handbook (Curzon Press, 1999)]

More thoughts on the views of Lt-Col. Robert Hamilton and a comment on the testimony of Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs William J. Burns before the US Senate (17 Sept 2008)

I am grateful to Lt-Col. Hamilton for pointing out my egregious error in stating that of late 70% of Georgia’s GNP had been devoted to military spending. Whatever figure and source I had in mind when composing my original ‘Thoughts’, that figure was totally unrealistic, and I duly apologise for its inclusion. It seems from figures presented in London on Friday 19th Sept to a meeting of economists by the Georgian Prime Minister that the figure for the coming year will be 17%. I leave it to economists and ordinary residents of Georgia to decide to what extent even the figure of 17% reveals a proper sense of priorities on the part of the authorities in Tbilisi, given the other challenges facing the country.

For what it is worth, before moving on from the question of the proportion of the budget devoted to the military, I quote from a report for IWPR by Koba Liklikadze from 19 July 2007 on the rise in military spending in Georgia at that time (see http://www.iwpr.net/?p=crs&s=f&o=337250&apc_state=henpcrs):

Government says sharp rise in defence spending will professionalise army but questions are asked about why the money is being spent.

By Koba Liklikadze in Tbilisi (CRS No. 402 19-Jul-07)

Georgia, which has made breathtaking increases in its defence spending over the last two years, looks set to beat all records this year.

In late June, the Georgian government increased the defence ministry’s budget of 513 million laris (315 million US dollars) by 442 million laris (260 million dollars).

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI, Georgia currently has the highest average growth rate of military spending in the world. Some independent experts are worried that the spending is not fully accounted for, while others say that it could undermine the peace processes with the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia…..“People in South Ossetia feel that Georgians contradict themselves in what they say, and what they do," Bela Valieva, a resident of the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali, told IWPR. “On the one hand they speak about peaceful resolution to conflicts, and on the other they increase their military budget all the time.”

Boris Chochiev, deputy prime minister of the de facto government of South Ossetia and the main negotiator with Tbilisi, went further, blaming western countries for the situation. He told IWPR that his government constantly raised the issue of Tbilisi’s military build-up with the international community but did not get a “sensible answer”.

“We are astonished at the position of countries that are calling on us to disarm while at the same time they are arming the aggressor, Georgia,” he said. “It’s not Georgia that is increasing its budget. The money is being given them by the West.” [End of quote]

See also the following at http://www.geneva.mid.ru/disarm/21.html 

Statement by H.E. Ambassador V.V.Loschinin, Permanent representative of the Russian Federation at the plenary meeting of the Conference on Disarmament, Geneva, 14 August, 2008 On the conflict in South Ossetia

I pointed out to our colleagues that the data from UN Register of conventional weapons were clear evidence that Georgia has been continuously preparing for the start of hostilities. For instance during the period from 2003 to 2008  according to Register data  124 battle tanks, 83 large caliber artillery systems, 43 armored combat vehicles and 20 combat aircraft were supplied to Georgia. Even according to official data of SIPRI, during the period of the Saakashvili government the military expenditure has increased almost 10-fold. According to other data the military budget has increased more then 20-fold.

I am not so grateful to the Lt-Colonel for his other remarks.

However, let me readily acknowledge at the outset that I have no military experience and no interest in acquiring any. My attitude is crystalised in the view that I formed back in the 1960s when first viewing the BBC’s magnificent 26-part TV-documentary ‘The Great War’, namely that every professional member of the military and every leading politician in a position to declare war should be required to watch one episode of this series every single day of their working lives in order that they never forget the horrors that they have in their power to inflict on their fellow human beings.

The Lt-Colonel urges that, if I have details of the weaponry recoved from the Valley, I should give it. Here it is:

• Upto 10,000 rounds for hand-held anti-tank grenade-launchers of type RPG-7;

• Upto 600 individual rounds for anti-tank grenade-launchers of the type PG-9;

• Upto 1,500 rounds for under-barrel grenade-launchers;

• Upto 600 individual shells for 82mm mortars;

• Upto 350 unguided rocket-missiles (NURS) S-8;

• 124,000 5.45mm cartridges (one KAMaz truck-load);

• 43,200 cartridges with tracer-bullets TS;

• 8 individual 122mm howitzers D-30 plus 1,500 artillery-shells for them;

• 804 individual shells for 60mm mortars of American manufacture;

• four multi-purpose, light-armoured vehicles (MTLB);

• four anti-aircraft placements of the type ZU-23-2;

• one 57mm cannon;

• one rocket volley-firing system LAR.

Also removed was a large amount of military-technical material for military units (tents, magazines for weapons, oil-cans, cartridge-pouches, spare-parts for weapons, belts, cases, etc…).

The above-data come from issue 100 of the newspaper Respublika Abxazii of 9th-10th September 2008 (p.2). My translation of the full article from which these data were taken is appended to this piece[ DJ: Not here].

Now, the Svans are admittedly the only members of the Kartvelian family of peoples (Georgians, Mingrelians, Laz, Svans) for whose fighting qualities the Abkhazians have any respect. But does Hamilton expect those of us who live in blissful ignorance of military matters to conclude that the few hundred Svan villagers who inhabited the Upper K’odor Valley are such rascals to need this quantity and type of weaponry to be kept in order by the ‘policemen’ so generously provided by Tbilisi? I think not. And so, perhaps the Lt-Colonel would give us the benefit of his expert knowledge and enlighten us as to what purpose this arsenal could possibly have served.

On the question of where the responsibility lies for initiating the large-scale fighting that began on 7th August 2008 I know of no serious (I stress ‘serious’) commentator who does not lay the blame fairly and squarely on Saak’ashvili. I restrict myself to quoting one observer, chosen virtually at random from all those whose thoughts have been posted on the Internet, namely Steven Pifer:

Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who is currently a visiting fellow with the Brookings Institution in Washington, says neither side behaved admirably in the conflict. Russia may have been prepared to strike, but it was Saakashvili who triggered the fighting with what Pifer calls his "ill-advised" move into South Ossetia. (Little Country Caught In Big-Stakes Game, September 15, 2008, by Brian Whitmore)

Though I stated in my first ‘Thoughts’ that I would restrict my comments mainly to Abkhazia, as this is the area with which I have been intimately connected for the last 32 years, I’m charged with keeping silent about acts of vengeance committed in the wake of the fighting in S. Ossetia because this does not serve my argument. I have no problem condemning any acts of gratuitous violence taken against innocent civilians of any ethnic group by way of provocation or retribution in any part of the world. But, of course, this is the Caucasus with a very strong tradition of blood-feud. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reminded Saak’ashvili during his press-conference in Sukhum on Sunday 13th September, Saak’ashvili himself once stated that in the Caucasus the spilling of blood is remembered not for decades but for centuries. Given this context, the recklessness (if the Lt-Colonel will allow me this use of this abstract noun) of Saak’ashvili’s decision to launch his assault on the Ossetians is placed in an even sharper focus. And it can have come as no surprise to him to observe the painful consequences of his decision paid by his fellow Georgians. After all, was it not an Ossetian who, having lost his wife and children in the air-collision caused some years ago by the mistake of a Swiss air-traffic controller, eventually tracked down and murdered that controller?

Hamilton obects to my use of the term ‘reckless’ to describe the arming of the Saak’ashvili regime by his Western friends and observes that Georgia, as an independent state, has the right to be in a position to defend itself. I remain untroubled by my choice of the word ‘reckless’. As for Georgia’s right to be able to defend itself, well from whom? Was it ever likely that Georgia’s neighbours (Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan) would attack it? That leaves Russia. Georgia was/is never going to be in a position to defend itself against Russia (which makes Saak’ashvili’s fateful decision of 7th August even more perplexing), and so one cannot speak of arming it in order to achieve that unrealisable goal. Therefore, the only explanation for Tbilisi arming itself to the extent it did is that it needed the weaponry for attacks on S. Ossetia and Abkhazia; and, since Russia is now protecting these two allied states, there can be no justification for Georgia being rearmed. To rearm it will be further to increase instability in an already unstable region. To whose advantage is that? Hamilton is at pains to lessen the blame for the introduction of riot-police on the streets of Tbilisi in November 2007 to quash an opposition-demonstration against the government. I note that he has nothing to stay about the staging of the shooting-incident in the Mingrelian village of Q’urcha on the day of the May parliamentary elections, which I mentioned in my earlier contribution. If Hamilton’s duties allow him the time to find a justification for all infringements of human rights by the Georgian authorities, he will find a pretty long list of them on the site http://www.humanrights.ge/, where brave Georgians themselves have been cataloguing them for years.

Let me explain in simple terms why I have been of the opinion for 19 years that the Georgians are alone responsible for the woes that have afflicted their republic, which could so easily have become a REAL beacon of multi-ethnic democracy with a successful economy, had wiser policies been followed. Instead of banging the drum of nationalism, leaders with the best interests of the country at heart should have proposed and seriously considered federalisation with real decentralisation to the federal units; the Abkhazians were actually calling for this, but the only Georgian response was war.

Having spent two academic years learning/researching Georgian at Tbilisi University (1975-76; 1979-80) along with several summer-visits to Abkhazia, I spent the final 5 months of 1987 in Georgia, combining a family-holiday in Abkhazia with an autumn-term sabbatical from my then-university (Hull), when I was based in the Iveria Hotel in the centre of Tbilisi. Apart from working on Mingrelian with the late K’orneli Danelia, Merab Chukhua and Revaz Sherozia, I had to investigate the history of language-planning in Soviet Georgia for a seminar-series in which I was a speaker in London at the start of 1988. During those enquiries what I discovered about not merely the treatment of the Abkhaz language but also the Abkhazian people during the mid-20th century threw immediate light on the tensions in the relations between the two peoples of which I’d been aware for some years. Talking about the events of the 1930s-40s to Georgians who were old enough to remember them, I was surprised to find that what happened in Abkhazia during those days of the dominance in Moscow, Tbilisi and Sukhum of Stalin-Beria-Chark’viani-Mgeladze were not in fact widely known; and so, it was understandable that Georgians of younger generations should be ignorant of those events, amongst which were: mass-importation of Mingrelians to alter the balance of the local demography; changing of the Abkhaz script from a Roman-base to a Georgian-base; closure of Abkhaz-language schools to be replaced by Georgian-language schools; banning of publishing in the language; falsification of Abkhazian history with the pseudo-scholarly theory propounded by P’avle Ingoroq’va in the late 1940s (republished in 1954 in his book ‘Giorgi Merchule’) as a ‘justification’ for the planned deportation of the Abkhazian nation, something the Abkhazians escaped by a whisker in 1948. I feared that what I had learnt about mid-20th-century history would eventually cause problems in my relations with Georgians, but I remained essentially sympathetic with Georgians’ well-known anti-Russian sentiments, viewing their openly paraded national pride as a mark of defiance against the various injustices suffered at the hand of their northern neighbour (even if it had been the Georgians themselves who gave Tsarist Russia its toehold in Transcaucasia when Erek’le 2nd, King (at various times) of Kartli and/or K’akheti, signed the Treaty of Georgievsk with Catherine the Great in 1783).

The reforms introduced in the Soviet Union by Mikheil Gorbachev facilitated discussion/publication of peoples and events long unmentionable. Receiving on a weekly basis the once-weekly /lit’erat’uruli sakartvelo/ ‘Literary Georgia’, the organ of the writers’ union and thus the vehicle for the expression of the views of Georgian intellectuals, I found a number of articles published there from the middle of 1988 fascinating for the sudden appearance of articles on Stalin and Beria. But things soon began to change for the worse.

Instead of revealing items about Georgia’s forbidden history, utterly distasteful pieces aimed at the Abkhazians, the Azerbaijani population based in Marneuli-Dmanisi, and the South Ossetians, all slighted as ‘guests on GEORGIAN soil’, began to appear. Coupling these with the now well-known slogan from the anti-communist opposition-movement ‘Georgia for the Georgians’ and attempts to rehabilitate the long-disgraced Ingoroq’va and his blatant distortion of Abkhazia’s history raised alarm-bells not only in my mind but, more naturally, amongst the Abkhazians and S. Ossetians themselves, who formed their national forums (Aydgylara under Sergei Shamba and Adamon Nykhas under Alan Chochiev, respectively) largely as a reaction in defence of the rights of their respective peoples and to combat the distinct threat emanating from Tbilisi. Whilst the Georgian jingoistic rhetoric was dangerously exclusionist (given that, even if one accepts, as I and the Abkhazians do not, that Mingrelians and Svans are correctly classifiable as ‘Georgians’, ‘Georgians’ formed only 70.1% of Georgia’s 1989 population), what came out of Aydgylara and other Abkhazian sources (I refrain from commenting on S. Ossetian publications, as I was not monitoring them as closely as I was the Abkhazian output) was reactive to outrageous Georgian claims and never exclusionist or threatening to ANY members of Abkhazia’s own complex patchwork of ethnic groups. This is why, when Georgia proper (i.e. minus Abkhazia and S. Ossetia) refused to participate in Gorbachev’s referendum on a restructuring of the Soviet Union, an absolute majority of the whole of Abkhazia’s eligible electorate voted to remain within the Union and not to follow Georgia in its bid for independence. The coup against Gorbachev scuppered any such remodelling project.

Georgia duly gained its independence, but the country remained unrecognised longer than other former union-republic because of the unstable character at its head, the late Zviad Gamsakhurdia, one of those who led the country down the disastrous path of nationalism. If Hamilton thinks the Russians can be blamed for what was purely a Georgian phenomenon (in fact the phrase ‘Georgian phenomenon’ was common in the nationalist outpourings singing the praises of the Georgian race and setting it above others), given the widespread nature of such writings and claims across the whole Georgian media, let him explain how. The Russians needed to do nothing to stir the Abkhazians and S. Ossetians (and let us not forget the fatal clashes between Georgians and Azerbaijanis in southern Georgia in July 1989), when the Georgians had stirred them so successfully all by themselves.

I tried to alert the Georgians to the clouds gathering over their republic (with particular reference to Abkhazia) with my ‘Open Letter’, written before the fighting in Sukhum and Ochamchira on 15th-16th July 1989 but published in ‘Literary Georgia’ on 22nd July, the Friday after those fatal clashes, but, as I learnt on the day of its publication (specifically from the fact that it was felt necessary to print attacks on me in the three articles that immediately followed my Open Letter  a similar disinclination to let the Georgian public make up its own mind on the basis of what they read or see was seen in the Georgian government’s recent jamming of Russian TV and internet-sites in the wake of the S. Ossetian fiasco) that, if one does not wholeheartedly support the Georgian position, one is considered a foe  indeed, Gamsakhurdia later styled me ‘kartveli eris mt’eri’ (Enemy of the Georgian People) for my pains. Anyone interested can read for themselves my views of 1989, as the ‘Open Letter’ (in the English translation I eventually made of my Georgian original) is available on www.apsny.ru on the specific page: http://www.apsny.ru/special/special.php?page=content/hewitt.htm. After the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict had descended into all-out war, I was asked to write an article setting out the arguments of the two sides. This I did, and it was duly published in Central Asian Survey in 1993. I examined the claims of both sides and found the Georgian case to be utterly baseless, a view I hold to this day  this article too is available on the aforementioned web-page. I have, thus, attempted over the years to present to an ignorant and uncaring world the Abkhazian position. A selection of my writings is also posted on that web-page, and so readers can draw their own conclusions. How many of the now legion of ‘experts’ on Georgia speak with a knowledge of Georgian than enables them to read what the Georgians write about these matters for the benefit of their own population? It should be noted that what is said/written in Georgia for foreign consumption often does not coincide with what appears when the authors produce a Georgian version. And, even if those whose jobs require them to spend time or even live in Georgia have picked up such a knowledge, how many of them will have read the materials from late 1988 that caused me (not to mention the relevant minorities themselves) such worries at the time and led me to the conclusion that Hamilton finds so distorting of historical reality? I await the appearance of such an individual to put the counter-case.

And one rider on Ingoroq’va: the street in Tbilisi on which the Institute of Linguistics fo the Georgian Academy Sciences stands has been renamed ‘ingoroq’vas kucha’ (Ingoroq’va Street), a sad illustration of what pseudo-scholarship can achieve in independent Georgia. And in case anyone should think that in other respects Ingoroq’va and his theory might be a think of the pre-Saak’ashvili past, let me draw attention to the existence of a large-format book, published in Tbilisi in 2007, in Georgian entitled ‘Essays from the History of Georgia: Abkhazia’. It consists of 377 pages and is written by a variety of authors. As one example I would mention chapter XI (pp. 178-196), the contribution from Georgia’s main specialist on the Abkhaz language, Teimuraz Gvantseladze. His piece is called ‘The linguistic foundations for the ethnographic history of Abkhazia’, and his conclusion reads as follows: ‘Thus, the linguistic material examined above proves quite conclusively that the original domicile of the ancestors of the Abkhazians was not the territory of modern-day Abkhazia and that they [the Abkhazians] did not reside here before the XVIth century.’ All of this, like the rest of the book, is pure fantasy, and dangerous fantasy for the way it poisons the minds of its Georgian readers against the rightful history of a people whose best interests according to Georgian propaganda can only be served within a unitary state that is Georgia. If Hamilton is really interested in distortions of history, this 2007 publication should provide him with some interesting reading.

Hamilton speaks of Russian assistance to the Abkhazian side in the 1992-93 war. In fact, there is compelling evidence that President Boris Yeltsin actually gave Shevardnadze the green light to attack Abkhazia on 14th August 1992. I am not going to rehearse yet again the arguments against Hamilton’s assertion (which is, of course, one that has wide currency). When I was asked to edit a book on the Abkhazians for Curzon Press, I knew that there were two exceptionally sensitive topics that needed to be discussed by authors against whom no possible charge of bias could be laid. These topics were (i) the question of Russian assistance to the Abkhazians, and (ii) the debate about Abkhazia’s demographic makeup since the start of data-collection in the second half of the 19th century. I, therefore, asked German Daniel Müller to put into article-format all the data I knew he had been gathering and analysing on this latter topic. As for the postulated military assistance, I specifically requested American film-journalist Dodge Billingsley to address this question in his article on the battle for the northern town of Gagra, which he had already researched. Again, interested parties can make their own judgments by reading the relevant chapters of ‘The Abkhazians: a handbook’ (Curzon Press, 1998). I have nothing further to say on these issues.

The world-community was absolutely right not to recognise Georgia under the unstable Gamsakhurdia but horribly wrong to recognise it under Shevardnadze in the spring of 1992 (a movement led, in Europe at least, by the UK government, I am ashamed to say). Of course, the reason for the change of attitude was the simple presence of Eduard Shevardnadze at the head of the illegitimate junta ruling Georgia at the time. I can imagine what the sort of people then advising their political masters will have been advocating, because I have heard from the mouth of one in a prime position to offer it: ‘Shevardnadze did the world a favour in his role as Soviet Foreign Minister, overseeing the dismantling of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the USSR; let’s repay the debt, and, by giving him Western backing, help him bring some sort of order to the failed state that Georgia is threatening to become.’ It must have sounded plausible to the politicians listening to such diplomats and advisers, especially when their attention was really concentrated on the mess that had been created in the Balkans by earlier ill-thought-through and over hasty recognition, but the advice took no account of the internal complexities of the polity that was Soviet Georgia, where Gamsakhurdia’s war in S. Ossetia was ongoing along with another bitter civil war in Mingrelia between the Zviadists and the Shevardnistas, and where tensions were rising in Abkhazia; moreover, the state was totally devoid of any legitimate government. Recognition led thereafter to dismissal of any demands for self-determination coming from Abkhazians and S. Ossetians because of the perceived overriding need to preserve SOVIET Georgia’s territorial integrity. This global error has led directly to recent events, for, with all the gains on the international front that he needed, Shevardnadze was emboldened to attack Abkhazia a matter of weeks after Georgia was admitted to the United Nations! With Gamsakhurdia’s Ossetian war, Shevardnadze’s Abkhazian war, the attempt to retake Abkhazia by force in May 1998, and Saak’ashvili’s crazed move against S. Ossetia on 7th August, no sensible observer can possibly still harbour the remotest hope that Abkhazia or S. Ossetia will ever again be part of any Georgian political structure, especially after the recognition now awarded to these republics by Russia. Even if the West persists in its self-defeating policy and withholds recognition, I would imagine that the peoples who live in Abkhazia (and S. Ossetia) would be satisfied if their standard of living could be raised through purely Russian investment to that existing just over the border in such cities as Sochi, which is an entirely realistic prospect for Abkhazia at least, even if this Sochi-standard is below what most Westerners expect from a holiday-resort. And so, the suggestion from Hamilton that the two entities are doomed to remain back-waters has to be put in the balance, remembering that freedom to control their affairs and security-guarantees from Russia will sit in the pan alongside the prospect of Sochi-style living standards  I would imagine that the Abkhazians plus local Armenians, Russians, and, yes, even Mingrelians might settle for this (as not all citizens of the world aspire to mimic the consumer-orientated lifestyle of the USA). It is the height of arrogance to assume that one knows better than the Abkhazians and S. Ossetians themselves where they would be best off (as, for example, with John McCain’s staggeringly uninformed remarks in Tbilisi in 2006, namely that he wished that the peoples of Georgia’s two breakaway-regions would soon learn what it means to live in freedom!).

I was reminded recently that it was in 1008 that the king of the Abkhazian Kingdom, which included what today lies within western Georgia, inherited the other statelets in the region (including those in today’s Turkey) where Kartvelian languages were spoken, thereby creating the united Kingdom of the Abkhazians and the Kartvelians. Saak’ashvili has earned for himself a unique place in history: exactly a millennium after that union, he can claim to have become, not the second ‘davit aghmashenebeli’ (David the Builder, the king who defeated the Seljuk Turks and expelled the Arabs from their centuries-long occupation of T’pilisi in the early 12th century), but rather ‘misha damangreveli’  do I need to translate?

And so to a few words in response to William J. Burns. In his address on 17th September to the US Senate, Burns stated: ‘Russia’s actions in Georgia, particularly its reckless decisions to invade Georgia and recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia, are deplorable.’ The label ‘deplorable’ more properly belongs elsewhere. As I pointed out in my earlier response to Hamilton, what Russia did was not invade Georgia, as the events have been mislabelled, but rather take effective measures to ensure both that the assault on S. Ossetia was stopped and that Georgia’s military was deprived of its capability of restarting hostilities either in S. Ossetia or Abkhazia, where the purging of the Upper K’odor Valley by Russian air-power and Abkhazian ground-forces was a necessary step after two years of illegal occupation and concerns about Georgia’s ultimate intentions there; given Abkhazia’s exposed coastline, the sinking of the vessels in Poti and the disabling of the arsenal in Senak’i were also essential. The EU has now given guarantees that it will prevent Georgia resuming its armed threat out of Gori on S. Ossetia and out of Senak’i on Abkhazia, though both regions will now be protected by fully armed Russian forces in addition to the local troops of the newly recognised states. Again, I was reminded the other day that this is not the first time during Georgia’s years of fragile independence that Russian forces have operated in Senak’i, Poti or even Georgia’s second city of Kutaisi  they were there in 1993, and yet the USA and the West raised not a squeak of protest. Why was this? At that time, Russia’s ‘humanitarian’ assistance was being used to put down the march out of Mingrelia towards Kutaisi of forces loyal to the deposed first post-communist president of Georgia, Zviad Gamsakhurdia, and the West raised no objections, Shevardnadze being simultaneously both Moscow’s and Washington’s man. But now that the West’s attentions are no longer concentrated on the Balkans and that America has its pipeline-interests in Georgia to protect, Russia has to be challenged, no matter how alarmingly similar to the unpredictable Gamsakhurdia Saak’ashvili has demonstrated himself to be.

A number of commentators have stated the view that Russia would have commanded the moral high ground, had it removed the Georgian tanks from S. Ossetia, driven them back to the border with Georgia, stopped there, refrained from action in Abkhazia’s Upper K’odor Valley, and taken the case to the UN Security Council. But, even if the Council had been able to reach agreement on a resolution that would have been seen as anti-Georgian and would thus have raised the hackles of the pro-Georgian permanent members with their powers of veto, would Georgia have paid any notice? Even if it had, most of its weaponry and military infrastructure would have been in place, allowing for a renewal of action at some stage deemed advantageous to it, and the threat under which Abkhazia has lived for years would have continued. The moral high ground is, no doubt, a fine place to sit, but, if it does not solve the problem and allows for more deaths down in the (?immoral) valley, why bother seeking lodgement there?

As stated above, the West’s huge mistake has been to recognise Georgia in the borders set for it by Stalin and ever since blindly to follow whatever the government in Tbilisi has requested of it in terms of relations with Abkhazia and S. Ossetia. That policy has been wholly counter-productive, driving these republics ever more firmly into Moscow’s embrace. One would have thought that, when after almost two decades one has achieved precisely the opposite of what one hoped, any rational person would change that policy. What does it say of the US, UK and NATO leaderships in particular that all they can collectively devise are more variations on the theme of the self-same failed policies? But where’s the surprise in this? On Tuesday 23rd September George W. Bush ‘informed’ the General Assembly of the UN that Georgia’s Rose Revolution (November 2003) had been to win freedom and democracy  from whom? Actually from the failed leadership of American-supported Eduard Shevardnadze, whose ousting by his former protégé Mikhail Saak’ashvili promptly saw the Bush administration disown him and switch allegiance to the new, still illegitimate leader (just as Shevardnadze himself had won international support for Georgia in the spring of 1992, as explained above, while heading a still illegitimate regime).